Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, has urged the Federal Government to delay the proposed 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel, warning that the policy could worsen inflation and increase fuel prices if local production remains insufficient.
Speaking during an interview on Arise News on Saturday, Dr. Alaje said the government should wait until Nigeria’s refineries can fully meet domestic demand before introducing new levies.
“If we are importing and unable to meet demand, that policy should wait until we are able to achieve verifiable local output,” he stated.
Alaje explained that while the import duty might boost government revenue or protect local refineries, it could also have adverse effects on consumers and the economy.
“Even though the Dangote Refinery has the capacity to meet demand, reports show that as of October 2025, it has not done so,” he noted.
Dr. Alaje projected that introducing the tax prematurely could push fuel prices up by nearly N100 per litre, further driving inflation.
“If local supply cannot meet demand, prices will rise. The projection is an increase of about N97 to N99 per litre,” he warned.
He emphasised that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for over 90 percent of Nigerian businesses, would be hardest hit by the policy.
Citing The Punch, he said Nigeria continued to import refined petroleum products despite public claims of self-sufficiency.
“Ten days into October, Nigeria was still importing. Either someone isn’t telling the full truth, or Dangote’s output is not enough,” he said.
Alaje added that the uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s actual fuel consumption reflects weak governance.
“No one can precisely state the nation’s total fuel consumption. That’s an indictment on us,” he remarked.
He warned that producers might take advantage of the import duty to increase prices, further burdening citizens.
“If I know there’s a 15 per cent import duty, I can raise my price by about 13 per cent because consumers have no alternative,” he explained.
Dr. Alaje advised that the focus should be on fixing Nigeria’s refineries and ensuring reliable local production before introducing new taxes.
“The refineries must work, preferably under private management with limited government shares.
”Until then, such a policy will only raise costs for households and businesses,” he advised.
