Recent analyses by senior diplomats, academics, and seasoned practitioners on Nigeria’s stance toward the Trump challenge have surprised me.
Much of the commentary reflects emotional and patriotic outbursts rather than fact-based strategic assessment.
The reality is that we are dealing with aerial superiority—a crucial factor in modern warfare.
Control of the skies determines the outcome of conflicts. The United States possesses an unmatched advantage in aerial capabilities.
Nigeria’s artillery and ground firepower would be unable to counter U.S. aerial dominance.
In a sustained missile strike, critical infrastructures could be crippled, and political leadership including command and control could be incapacitated in a single day.
Our current aerial capacity is insufficient to threaten even U.S. facilities in neighboring Niger.
Moreover, the U.S. has the ability to insert Special Forces anywhere in Nigeria undetected, as history has demonstrated.
This means abductions or targeted operations could occur in seconds. Modern warfare relies on speed, shock, and precision; a conventional ground confrontation with U.S. forces in Nigeria is highly unlikely.
The situation is precarious. This is why nuclear non-proliferation treaties carry such strategic weight.
For a country like Nigeria, a credible deterrent such as nuclear capability remains the only mechanism to offset overwhelming U.S. superiority.
Consequently, investment in research and development is critical to ensure that Nigeria is never in a position of strategic vulnerability.
Given the current realities, saber-rattling is not an option. Diplomacy must take precedence, alongside firm domestic action to address insecurity.
Nigeria needs to project force effectively to neutralise Islamic militants, Fulani herdsmen, and terrorist networks, while sealing its borders to prevent the infiltration of destabilising actors.
Strategic patience, investment in capacity, and robust domestic security measures are essential to safeguard Nigeria’s sovereignty in an era defined by advanced military technology.
