Africa faces “coup contagion” as political impunity spurs military takeovers, says analyst
Africa is experiencing a dangerous wave of military coups, a development described by global affairs analyst Paul Ejime as a “coup contagion” fueled by political leaders who manipulate constitutions, suppress opposition, and govern with impunity.
In an interview with Arise News on Monday, Ejime argued that repeated abuses by elected officials have emboldened the military to seize power.
“Because the coup has failed to act when it needed to, the politicians are doing whatever they please without consequence.
“When civilians protest, the military suppresses them. Now the military has found a way to say, ‘We can also act on our own, ” he said.
Ejime described the recent failed coup attempt in Guinea-Bissau as “a comic of a coup,” recalling his firsthand observations during the events.
He criticised President Umaro Embaló for dismantling democratic institutions, sacking parliament twice, appointing all judges, and interfering with the November 23 elections to extend his tenure.
“The Prime Minister was his campaign director. How can this man have the gut to fool not just his country but the world?” Ejime asked.
He also accused Embaló of obstructing external scrutiny. During an ECOWAS mission in March, the president reportedly threatened officials who attempted to meet opposition leaders, a move Ejime said demonstrated blatant impunity.
Expanding on the regional crisis, Ejime said political elites undermined democratic norms while citizens enable such behavior.
“Some say democracy has failed. No, it is the people that have failed democracy, not the practitioners,” he said.
He cited Benin Republic under President Patrice Talon, where a female opposition candidate was jailed for 20 years in 2021 and labeled a terrorist, as an example of democratic erosion.
On Nigeria’s recent troop deployment to Benin following a request from Cotonou, Ejime defended the action as necessary to prevent the spread of unrest.
“The danger was coming too close to home, and if Nigeria didn’t act, it would become the next target,” he said, highlighting the role of external interests in fueling instability.
Ejime noted that ECOWAS and African leaders must adhere strictly to constitutional and electoral rules to prevent further democratic backsliding.
“They should play by the rules. There are rules to this game, starting with the constitution and electoral laws. But they are not obeying them,” he said.
