The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that Nigeria’s sustainable crude oil production capacity currently stands at 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd), with no spare capacity, despite recent claims suggesting the country could quickly boost output in the coming months.
The IEA, in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), highlighted that Nigeria’s production is below its OPEC target of 1.5 million bpd, and cannot be immediately increased in response to market disruptions or geopolitical tensions.
According to the report, Nigeria’s output hovered at 1.44 million bpd in November 2025, before declining slightly to 1.43 million bpd in December 2025.
While the shortfall of roughly 70,000 bpd may seem modest, the IEA stressed that it reflects structural limitations rather than voluntary production restraint.
The report attributed Nigeria’s persistent underperformance to underinvestment, aging infrastructure, security challenges, and operational inefficiencies, including non-functional crude evacuation routes.
Despite ambitions by the NNPC Ltd and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to reach 2–2.4 million bpd, these targets have yet to be realised.
Critically, the IEA noted that Nigeria has zero spare capacity, meaning current production represents the maximum sustainable output.
In global oil markets, spare capacity production that can be quickly ramped up, is vital to absorb shocks from outages, conflicts, or sudden demand spikes.
Comparatively, major producers like Saudi Arabia maintain a spare capacity of over 2.4 million bpd, while the UAE retains about 60,000 bpd, and Iraq and Kuwait hold buffers of 53,000 bpd and 34,000 bpd, respectively.
Unlike Nigeria, these countries deliberately operate below their technical limits as part of OPEC+ supply management.
African producers including Angola and Libya face similar structural challenges, with Angola struggling due to declining fields and Libya experiencing frequent production outages.
The IEA also projected global oil demand growth of 930,000 bpd in 2026, up from 850,000 bpd in 2025, as economies recover from last year’s tariff disruptions and price instability.
World oil supply is expected to rise by 2.5 million bpd to 108.7 million bpd, with non-OPEC+ producers contributing 1.3 million bpd of the increase.
The report paints a sobering picture for Nigeria, underscoring that despite official optimism, the country’s production capacity is constrained, leaving it vulnerable to market fluctuations and geopolitical shocks.
