Middle East Narratives and the Danger of Simplistic Geopolitics By Frank Odion Apokwu
In this age of instant messaging and social media commentary, geopolitical debates are increasingly shaped by viral posts rather than careful analysis.
A recent comment circulating on WhatsApp claims that Israel is being destroyed because of the ambitions of two politicians and that Iran had once opened its nuclear facilities to international inspection before being betrayed by Western powers.
Like many viral geopolitical narratives, the statement contains fragments of truth but ultimately oversimplifies a highly complex strategic contest.
At the centre of the argument lies the nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between Iran and major world powers.
Under the agreement, Iran accepted strict limits on its nuclear program and allowed extensive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
For several years, the IAEA confirmed that Iran was complying with the deal.
However, in 2018 the United States, under the administration of Donald Trump, withdrew from the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
That decision marked a major turning point and contributed significantly to the collapse of the arrangement.
Critics of the withdrawal argue that it undermined a functioning diplomatic framework and hardened Iran’s position.
Yet it is equally important to recognise that the broader conflict between Iran and Israel did not begin with the nuclear deal and cannot be reduced to the decisions of a single administration.
Israel’s leadership, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has long viewed Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential security threat.
Iran, on the other hand, regards Israel as a hostile regional rival and has supported several groups opposed to Israeli influence in the Middle East.
These tensions have manifested not only in diplomatic confrontations but also in proxy conflicts across the region.
Another claim frequently made in such commentary is that Iran maintains good relations with the rest of the world except Western countries.
While Iran has developed strategic partnerships with major powers such as Russia and China, the reality is far more complicated.
For decades, Iran has also had difficult relationships with key Middle Eastern states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Although diplomatic rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh has improved in recent years, regional mistrust remains deep.
International politics rarely conforms to the neat moral narratives often presented on social media.
Conflicts are rarely driven solely by the ambitions of individual leaders; they are usually the result of long-term strategic calculations, ideological rivalries, security concerns, and historical grievances.
The danger of simplified geopolitical narratives is that they obscure these complexities and encourage polarised thinking.
For observers and analysts, the responsibility is therefore clear: to approach global developments with intellectual discipline, historical awareness, and a commitment to separating verified facts from emotionally compelling but incomplete narratives.
In an era when information travels faster than understanding, careful analysis remains the most valuable antidote to misinformation.
Frank Odion Apokwu, DSC, LLB, FNIM, FSM, FIMC, CMC, is a Management Consultant Public Affairs Analyst Democratic Reforms and Inclusive Development Advocate. He writes from Asaba.
Frank Odion Apokwu is a social commentator
