Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is experiencing a surge in fuel demand from across Africa as the ongoing war involving Iran disrupts global supply chains, exposing the continent’s heavy reliance on imported petroleum.
Executives at Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals reported receiving inquiries from South Africa, other African governments, and even countries outside the continent.
South Africa is said to be negotiating a 12-month standard supply contract with Nigeria, with discussions continuing privately.
The conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran has sent ripples through global energy markets, triggering shortages from Asia to Africa and highlighting the vulnerabilities of regional fuel supply systems.
In Africa, the impact is particularly acute in East and Southern regions, where roughly 75 per cent of refined fuel imports originate from the Middle East, according to energy consultancy CITAC.
South Africa acknowledged the risk, stating it is “actively coordinating with industry stakeholders to secure both crude oil and refined petroleum products from a diversified range of sources.”
The government added: “A comprehensive plan is in place to manage potential supply risks.”
Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery allocates approximately 75 per cent of its output to Nigeria, with the remainder earmarked for export.
Other African countries, including Ghana and Kenya, have also approached the company seeking fuel supplies.
“Right now it is not about pricing, it’s about availability,” Dangote told reporters.
“I think the situation will continue for a while.”
While South Africa asserts it has sufficient fuel for the “coming weeks,” and Kenya maintains a three-week stock requirement, concerns persist across the continent.
In Ethiopia, government has directed fuel stations to prioritise public transport and urged citizens to conserve energy.
In Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, fuel prices have nearly doubled amid tight supplies.
Despite holding roughly eight million barrels in strategic crude reserves, South Africa lacks dedicated fuel stockpiles, raising concerns among lawmakers about long-term preparedness.
Africa’s largest economy has also seen refining capacity decline due to accidents and years of underinvestment, heightening reliance on imported fuel.
Industry stakeholders insist that supplies remain stable for now, but businesses are already taking precautionary measures.
Demand for coal has surged, with prices rising sharply as companies seek alternative energy sources.
Exxaro Resources warned of rising freight and insurance costs alongside potential supply disruptions.
Chief Executive Officer Ben Magara said: “Making sure we have enough fuel inventories for a crisis like this is also quite important.
”We are putting a lot of business continuity management plans in place because you just, you never know.”
