Nigeria earned an estimated N161.1 trillion in revenues from oil and non-oil sectors between 2010 and 2024, with recent data showing that tax and non-oil income streams now dominate the country’s fiscal structure.
A report by Quartus Economics, which examined federation revenues during the period, indicated that Nigeria has transitioned from a commodity-dependent system to one increasingly driven by taxes rather than oil exports.
The report, titled “Nigeria Unshackled: Inside the Steady Rise of a Fiscal State,” stated that N80.6 trillion (49.99%) came from oil-related activities, while ₦80.57 trillion (50.01%) was generated from non-oil sources.
Between 2023 and 2025, an estimated N62.3 trillion was earned from taxes alone, with the non-oil sector contributing the largest proportion.
This transformation followed more than a decade of economic shocks, policy reforms, and structural adjustments triggered by the 2014 global oil price crash.
Before the crisis, oil accounted for roughly three-quarters of Nigeria’s public revenues, leaving government finances highly vulnerable to external shocks.
Following the oil price collapse, Nigeria’s GDP per capita plunged from over $4,000 in 2014 to about $1,120 by 2024, while poverty levels surged, with an additional 65 million Nigerians falling into poverty by 2023.
Over the past decade, and particularly in the last five years, the government has aggressively expanded its non-oil revenue base through tax reforms, improved collection mechanisms, and administrative changes.
“During the 15-year period between 2010 and 2024, the Nigerian federation earned N161.1 trillion in revenues: N80.6 trillion (49.99%) from oil-related sources and N80.57 trillion (50.01%) from non-oil sources,” the report added.
By 2024, oil revenues accounted for just about a quarter of total federation revenues, a sharp decline from pre-crisis levels. In contrast, tax revenues surged, contributing as much as 87 per cent of total revenues, with non-oil taxes forming the bulk of the increase.
Tax revenues nearly tripled between 2022 and 2025, rising from just over N10 trillion to more than N28 trillion, with the non-oil sector contributing over 70% of the total.
In 2025, tax collection grew by 30 per cent, primarily from non-oil taxes, which accounted for nearly 84 per cent of the growth in federally collected taxes.
“Within three years, Nigeria’s tax revenue nearly tripled from N10.18 trillion in 2022 to N28.29 trillion in 2025,” the report stated.
Despite these gains, analysts noted that revenue growth remains modest relative to ongoing fiscal policy and revenue administration reforms.
Over the last five years, particularly since 2023, Nigeria’s federation revenue grew rapidly from previously underrated sources, showing stability and healthy diversification.
“As of 2024 year-end, total revenue was nearly four times 2019 revenue, and by 2025 year-end, tax collections were more than five times 2019 levels,” the report revealed.
A decade after the oil price collapse, Nigeria’s revenue base has shifted from concentrated dependence on oil and dominance of non-tax revenue toward a resilient and sustainable mix.
“The contribution of oil to total federally collected revenues fell from 73.9 per cent in 2010 to 25.8 per cent in 2024.
Non-oil revenue grew from 25 per cent in 2010 to nearly 75 per cent by 2024.
From 44.5 per cent in 2014, non-oil taxes now account for nearly three-quarters (75.9%) of federally collected taxes, while oil taxes dropped from 55 per cent in 2015 to less than a quarter in 2025,” the report explained.
Despite these improvements, the legacy of the 2014 crisis continues to weigh heavily, particularly through the rapid rise in public debt.
Following revenue collapses, the government relied heavily on borrowing to finance deficits and infrastructure investments.
Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has more than tripled over the past decade, while debt service costs have surged.
Debt service as a share of revenue rose from under seven per cent in 2012 to nearly 40 per cent in recent years, highlighting the growing burden on government finances.
