OPEC holds oil production steady for first quarter of 2026 amid supply concerns
OPEC has decided to maintain current oil production levels for the first quarter of 2026, signaling caution amid fears of a potential global supply glut.
The decision comes as the group monitors geopolitical developments, including ongoing efforts by the United States to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could affect oil flows if sanctions on Russia are lifted.
Brent crude recently traded near $63 per barrel, down around 15 percent for the year, reflecting concerns over oversupply.
OPEC+ members, which account for about half of the world’s oil production, have already introduced roughly 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025, and the latest agreement keeps these output levels steady.
The organisation continues to enforce cuts totaling 3.24 million barrels per day, about three percent of global demand.
These include a 2 million barrel reduction by most members lasting through the end of 2026, and a partial restoration of 1.24 million barrels by eight countries that had started returning supply in October.
Looking ahead, OPEC+ has approved a process to assess members’ maximum production capacity, which will help set output baselines for 2027.
The evaluation, scheduled from January to September 2026, will involve one company reviewing 19 members, while countries under sanctions, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, would have their capacity assessed separately or based on average production figures.
The organisation faces ongoing challenges in balancing member interests. While the UAE seeks higher quotas after expanding capacity, some African members, such as Nigeria, are resisting cuts despite declining output. Angola previously left the group over similar disputes.
Analysts say the decision reflects OPEC+’s priority for stability over aggressive market share ambitions at a time of growing uncertainty, both in global demand and geopolitical tensions.
