The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has attributed Nigeria’s improved economic performance in the second half of 2025 largely to gains recorded outside the oil sector, despite weaker crude output during the period.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday, OPEC noted that Nigeria’s economy remained resilient in the latter part of the year, with expansion in non-oil activities helping to cushion the impact of slower growth in the petroleum industry amid global headwinds.
The report showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production dipped slightly in December 2025 to 1.422 million barrels per day, compared to 1.436 million barrels per day recorded in November.
OPEC data also indicated that the country failed to meet its production quota from August to December, after last achieving the target in July 2025.
Quarterly figures highlighted a gradual decline in output across the year, falling from an average of 1.468 million barrels per day in the first quarter to about 1.42 million barrels per day in the final quarter.
According to OPEC, improvements in domestic conditions were driven by easing inflation, relative stability in the naira, reduced imports of refined fuel and stronger inflows from remittances.
These factors, the organisation said, supported overall growth even as oil-sector performance softened.
The report noted that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product growth moderated slightly to 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, down from 4.2 per cent in the previous quarter.
However, growth in the non-oil segment strengthened, rising to match the overall rate at 3.9 per cent.
Inflation, OPEC added, continued to slow for the eighth consecutive month in November, with headline inflation easing to 14.5 per cent from 16.1 per cent in October.
The moderation was attributed to earlier monetary tightening, currency gains and seasonal harvest effects.
Despite the improving inflation outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its benchmark interest rate at 27 per cent in December, citing the need to entrench price stability.
OPEC cautioned, however, that persistently high interest rates could weigh on demand in the short term, even as they help preserve recent disinflation gains.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has indicated that interest rate cuts could be considered if inflation continues to decline.
He said lower borrowing costs would ease pressure on public finances and reduce the government’s debt servicing burden.
The National Bureau of Statistics is also expected to publish two separate inflation figures for December following changes to its consumer price index methodology, a move aimed at improving transparency amid concerns over data distortion.
