The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2026, raising it to 4.4 percent, up from the 4.2 percent projected in October 2025.
The announcement, part of the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, reflected optimism about the Nigerian economy amid ongoing policy reforms and broader regional recovery trends.
The IMF noted that the improved outlook for Nigeria was not an isolated occurrence but part of a wider trend of gradual economic strengthening across Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s upward revision is underpinned by reforms aimed at enhancing fiscal coordination, stabilising macroeconomic conditions, and boosting productivity across key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
“Increasing investment in critical infrastructure, supporting private sector growth, and improving fiscal governance are central to Nigeria’s ongoing economic adjustments,” the IMF report stated.
The previous projection, released in October 2025, had estimated 4.2 per cent growth, reflecting concerns over inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and structural bottlenecks that continued to weigh on the economy.
Since then, policymakers in Nigeria have intensified efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability, implement reforms, and encourage private investment.
The IMF emphasised that structural reforms remain critical for sustainable long-term growth, not only in Nigeria but across emerging and developing economies.
In the Sub-Saharan region, growth expectations were also slightly revised upward—from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026—signaling a broadly shared economic recovery.
Globally, the Fund expects steady growth rates of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, largely driven by technology-led investment, including advances in artificial intelligence, and supported by accommodative financial conditions.
The IMF also forecasts a gradual easing of global inflation, with headline rates declining from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 percent in 2027.
Analysts said Nigeria’s growth prospects have been strengthened by rising non-oil exports, investments in infrastructure, and ongoing reforms in the energy and financial sectors.
Despite these improvements, challenges such as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal pressures remained areas of concern that the government must continue to address.
The IMF’s revised forecast is being seen as a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic management and signals potential for continued growth and investment opportunities in Africa’s largest economy.
