The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved a fresh increase in crude oil production for September, completing the phased reversal of its voluntary output cuts introduced in 2023 while signalling confidence in the resilience of the global oil market despite lingering geopolitical uncertainties.
At a meeting held on Sunday, the alliance agreed to increase production quotas by about 188,000 barrels per day from September for its core producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The latest increase effectively concludes the restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut adopted in 2023 to support oil prices amid weakening global demand and economic uncertainty.
The United Arab Emirates, which was initially part of the arrangement, exited OPEC in May.
Despite successive monthly production increases this year, the additional volumes have had only a limited impact on global oil supplies as export disruptions linked to the conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine continue to constrain shipments from producers in the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Although market analysts had expected OPEC+ to suspend further production increases during the final quarter of the year, the alliance made no reference to its plans for October through December in its official communiqué, leaving markets to speculate on its next course of action.
Industry observers believe the group is now likely to shift its attention to managing any surplus that may emerge once disrupted export flows return to normal, with a pause in output adjustments during the fourth quarter considered the most probable outcome.
Such a pause would also give the alliance room to prepare for negotiations on production quotas that will take effect from 2027.
The market reacted positively to the decision, with oil prices extending gains after the meeting.
Brent crude, Nigeria’s benchmark, settled at $90.12 per barrel, while the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $84.67 per barrel.
Both benchmarks gained more than one per cent after losing over five per cent during the previous week on expectations that tensions in the Middle East could ease.
Separately, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which monitors compliance with OPEC+ production agreements, voiced concern over attacks on energy infrastructure during the ongoing United States and Israeli military operations against Iran.
The committee warned that “damage to critical facilities was expensive to repair and could affect global oil supplies,” highlighting growing concerns over the vulnerability of energy infrastructure amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
While the alliance has completed the restoration of its voluntary production cuts, it continues to maintain another layer of supply restraint amounting to approximately 2 million barrels per day.
Those reductions, introduced in 2022, will remain in force until the end of 2026, ensuring that OPEC+ retains significant flexibility to respond to changing market conditions.
The organisation is also reviewing the production capacity of member countries ahead of negotiations on new output baselines that will determine production quotas from 2027.
The talks are expected to be highly contested, with countries such as Iraq seeking larger production allocations to reflect expanded production capacity, a development that could reshape future production-sharing arrangements within the alliance.
OPEC+ currently comprises 21 oil-producing countries, bringing together members of OPEC and non-OPEC allies led by Russia.
However, monthly production adjustments are determined by the alliance’s core group of seven participating countries, which is scheduled to hold its next meeting on September 6.
