The World Bank has projected that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth will slow to 4.0 per cent in 2026 before rising modestly in the following years.
It expects growth to average 4.4 per cent in 2027 and 2028 across the region.
The projection was contained in the latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released in June.
The bank also said per capita income growth will remain weak, limiting progress in poverty reduction.
It forecast real per capita GDP growth of 1.6 per cent in 2026.
This is expected to rise slightly to about 2.0 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
The report noted that higher global energy prices will have mixed effects across African economies.
Oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola are expected to benefit from rising prices.
However, non-oil economies would face higher fuel, fertiliser and transport costs.
These pressures are expected to push up inflation, especially food prices.
The World Bank warned that rising government debt remains a major risk for emerging economies.
It said debt levels were increasing borrowing costs and raising the risk of debt distress.
Limited fiscal space is also restricting government responses to economic shocks.
The report noted that monetary policy is likely to remain tight due to persistent inflation pressures.
It added that weaker external financing and declining aid flows are worsening fiscal conditions.
According to the bank, structural reforms in some countries are only partially offsetting global headwinds.
It cited reforms in energy, exchange rates and public financial management in several African economies.
However, it said growth in resource-rich economies remained constrained by structural challenges.
The bank also revised down growth forecasts for Nigeria and South Africa.
It linked the revision to weaker external demand and ongoing internal constraints.
Non-resource-rich economies are expected to grow faster but still face risks from inflation and debt.
The report warned that food insecurity remained severe in fragile and conflict-affected states.
It also said declining aid could worsen humanitarian and health crises across the region.
Economists said the outlook highlights the need for stronger reforms and improved fiscal management.
The World Bank concluded that while growth is expected to continue, it would remain uneven and insufficient to sharply reduce poverty.
