Director of Research at the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Professor Femi Otubanjo, has warned that the political crisis surrounding Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara could weaken President Bola Tinubu’s political support in the South-South region ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Otubanjo criticised the handling of the Rivers political crisis, describing Governor Fubara’s treatment within the state’s political structure as troubling and unprecedented.
“The treatment of Fubara must be one of the American wonders of Nigerian politics,” Otubanjo said.
“Fubara has been badly treated.”
The political analyst argued that recent developments in Rivers State indicate that former governor and current Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, is pursuing personal political interests rather than working in alignment with President Tinubu’s broader electoral agenda.
“What has emerged today in Rivers is that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, not Tinubu’s agenda, in spite of the pretence of P-BAT and all that combination,” he stated.
According to him, sidelining Fubara could create serious political consequences for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers State and across the South-South geopolitical zone.
“If Wike really wants to pursue Tinubu’s agenda, he must retain Fubara or struggle to get another injured man as the candidate.
“To remove Fubara, an injured man, for the first time being governor of that state, and put an upland person is to be creating problems for Tinubu, ” said.
Otubanjo also alleged that political influence over candidate selection in Rivers State had shifted away from formal party institutions, with Wike now controlling the APC primary structure despite not being a member of the ruling party.
“We have a situation in which Wike, who is not even in the APC, has taken control of the primary situation in the APC.
“The reality, of course, is that what they have done is very dangerous for Tinubu,” he said.
The professor warned that removing or weakening Governor Fubara politically could alienate Rivers voters and reduce support for the APC during future elections.
“By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the people of Rivers State.
“You are undermining your ability to win Rivers State, ” he said.
He also argued that the effects of the crisis could extend beyond Rivers, potentially affecting the ruling party’s standing throughout the South-South region.
“You are not only alienating people in Rivers State, you are alienating the South-South across Nigeria.
“The beneficiaries of that game will be Wike. It’s a dangerous game to play, they are not likely to vote, ” he added.
Otubanjo maintained that while political structures and party machinery may influence the electoral process, they do not automatically guarantee voter loyalty.
“Wike does not own Rivers State.
Wike owns the machinery of selection but he does not own the people, ” he said.
The NIIA scholar further noted that President Tinubu had previously enjoyed growing political acceptance in the South-South due to alliances with influential political figures across the region.
“Tinubu had, going for him, the whole of the South-South. All of them had gone APC.
“Now you are trying to undermine that advantage which you have laboured to gain, ” he said.
Despite acknowledging that the political odds currently favour President Tinubu, Otubanjo warned that Nigerian politics remains highly unpredictable.
“A week is a long time in politics. The odds favour Tinubu but, as Harold Wilson tells us, a week is a long time in politics, ” he said.
