The World Bank Group has warned that climate change could push an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035 and reduce the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by up to 6.8 per cent by 2050 if urgent adaptation measures are not implemented.
The warning is contained in the World Bank Group Nigeria Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), which highlights rising climate risks including flooding, drought, coastal erosion and extreme heat as major threats to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic growth.
According to the report, climate change now poses a significant risk to Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2035 and transitioning to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by 2050.
While acknowledging recent economic reforms, the World Bank cautioned that climate shocks could reverse gains in poverty reduction and development if adaptation efforts are not significantly scaled up.
The report estimated that about 138 million Nigerians, roughly 60 per cent of the population were living in poverty as of 2024, with nearly half unable to afford a basic caloric food basket even if all their spending went to food.
It warned that under a severe “Dry/Hot” climate scenario, poverty could worsen further.
“The impacts of climate change are projected to hamper progress in poverty reduction, with the pessimistic Dry/Hot scenario pushing an additional 5.1 million Nigerians into poverty by 2035,” the report stated.
The World Bank also noted that climate change would deepen inequality, as poorer households are more dependent on agriculture and informal outdoor work, making them more vulnerable to weather shocks.
It projected that spending among the poorest Nigerians could fall by about 3 per cent by 2035, compared to 1.7 per cent for wealthier households.
The report identified labour productivity as one of the most affected areas, warning that rising temperatures and heat stress could reduce national productivity by up to 3.8 per cent by 2050.
Agriculture, which employs about two-thirds of poor Nigerians and contributes roughly 25 per cent of GDP, is expected to suffer the most severe impact.
Productivity losses in agriculture could reach 6.3 per cent by mid-century, while rain-fed crop yields could fall by up to 3.9 per cent and irrigated farming by as much as 11.2 per cent under some scenarios.
The report also linked climate change to rising insecurity, noting that competition over land and water resources is already worsening herder-farmer conflicts in several regions.
Health risks are expected to rise as well, with increasing temperatures and extreme weather events likely to worsen disease burden, malnutrition, and pressure on Nigeria’s healthcare system.
Infrastructure is also at risk, with annual flood-related damage to bridges projected to reach $172.8 million by 2050, alongside broader losses to transport networks as extreme weather intensifies.
Despite these projections, the World Bank said decisive adaptation action could significantly reduce losses and even boost long-term growth.
It stated that effective implementation of adaptation measures could limit GDP losses to about 0.5 per cent by 2030 and potentially raise GDP by 0.9 per cent above baseline levels by 2050.
The report estimated that Nigeria would require about $94.6 billion in climate-related investments between 2025 and 2030, representing 3.6 per cent of GDP, to support a resilient and low-emission transition.
It added that $114.4 billion would be needed between 2030 and 2040, while a further $73 billion would be required between 2040 and 2050.
“The indicative investment needs for Nigeria’s resilient, low-emission transition are estimated to be US$94.6 billion US$114.4 billion and US$73 billion…
”These estimates are subject to uncertainties related to climate projections,” the report noted.
The World Bank urged Nigeria to scale up implementation of climate policies, improve coordination across government agencies, expand access to financing, and strengthen infrastructure and social protection systems.
While acknowledging ongoing reforms across key sectors, it stressed that current efforts remain insufficient to fully address the scale of climate risks facing the country.
