Lagos residents have been advised to prepare for possible flooding, heavy rainfall and strong winds as the 2026 rainy season begins, following new climate predictions released for the state.
The warning was issued by the Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, during a media briefing held at the state’s Ministry of the Environment in Lagos.
The briefing formed part of the government’s annual disclosure of seasonal climate predictions and their potential socio-economic impact on residents and the state.
According to Wahab, the projections were drawn from the seasonal forecast published on February 10 by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.
The report outlined expected rainfall patterns, temperature levels and other atmospheric conditions likely to affect different parts of the country throughout the year.
The commissioner explained that Lagos authorities provide such briefings every year to keep residents informed about possible environmental risks during the rainy season and to enable early preparation.
Climate experts expect the year’s weather pattern to be influenced by a weak phase of the La Niña alongside a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
These global ocean-atmosphere patterns can alter rainfall distribution and seasonal weather conditions across the world.
A weak La Niña phase typically involves slightly cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean.
This condition often produces subtle changes in rainfall distribution and generally weaker global climate impacts compared to stronger La Niña episodes.
Meanwhile, an ENSO-neutral phase represents a period when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions dominate, usually resulting in weather patterns that follow more typical seasonal trends.
Wahab noted that the current projections indicate the rainy season in Lagos could begin earlier than usual and last longer than normal.
“Available forecasts suggest an early onset of rainfall, possibly beginning toward the end of March, while the cessation of the rainy season is likely to occur in early December,” he said.
The commissioner added that rainfall levels during the first peak of the rainy season could exceed normal levels, while the second peak is expected to experience rainfall within normal ranges.
Overall, Lagos is projected to record between 1,650 millimetres and 3,030 millimetres of rainfall across the year, with the average annual rainfall estimated at around 1,965 millimetres across the state’s 20 local government areas.
Temperature levels between March and May are also expected to remain above normal, which could intensify weather conditions during the early months of the rainy season.
Detailed projections showed that rainfall patterns may vary slightly across different parts of Lagos.
Ikeja: rainfall expected from March 31 to December 2 with approximately 1,932 mm of rainfall.
Badagry: projected rainfall period from March 28 to December 3 with about 2,010 mm.
Ikorodu: rainfall likely between March 31 and December 2, totaling roughly 1,935 mm.
Lagos Island: rainfall projected from March 30 to December 2 with about 1,968 mm.
Epe: rainfall forecast from March 29 to December 3 with about 1,984 mm.
It also anticipate above-average rainfall in Lagos and neighbouring Ogun State, which could heighten the possibility of flooding in vulnerable communities.
The commissioner warned that intense rainfall could trigger flooding in several parts of the state, particularly in low-lying areas.
Strong winds at the beginning and end of the rainy season may also pose risks to buildings, billboards and telecommunications infrastructure.
Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall could further disrupt economic activities, potentially causing delays in air travel and interruptions to commercial operations.
To improve readiness for potential flooding and severe weather conditions, the Lagos State Government said it had upgraded its environmental monitoring systems.
Wahab stated that the state operates a network of weather monitoring and river gauge stations designed to track rainfall levels and water flow in real time.
He said that the system would help the government detect potential flood threats and respond promptly.
He also noted that the ministry was working closely with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency to provide early warning information for farmers, urban planners, transport operators and businesses whose operations depend heavily on weather conditions.
In addition, the government has intensified year-round drainage clearing and improved solid waste management to ensure water flows freely through drainage channels during heavy rainfall.
He also disclosed that the state was collaborating with the Ogun‑Oshun River Basin Development Authority to regulate the release of water from the Oyan Dam.
The measure aims to minimise flooding risks along downstream sections of the Ogun River.
Several communities considered vulnerable to river flooding — including Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo and Ajegunle — are currently under close observation.
Similarly, communities located along flood plains such as Owode, Iwaya, Makoko, Badia, Ijora, Isaalu, Pota and Shibiri have been advised to remain vigilant and prepare for possible relocation if water levels increased.
Wahab said agencies responsible for emergency management and traffic control have been placed on high alert to respond quickly to any incidents caused by thunderstorms or heavy rainfall.
The Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency has also been directed to ensure that billboards and advertising structures comply with safety standards in anticipation of strong winds.
Residents were urged to support government efforts by keeping drainage channels free of waste and avoiding the illegal dumping of refuse into canals and waterways.
Such practices, the commissioner noted, are among the major causes of urban flooding.
Motorists were also advised to exercise caution during rainfall by observing speed limits and driving carefully on slippery roads.
“Residents should regularly clear drains around their homes to ensure the free flow of stormwater and reduce the risk of flooding,” Wahab said, stressing that collective action remains crucial to protecting lives and property during the rainy season.
