A pre-election assessment by the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN) has raised concerns over voter apathy, vote trading, party crises, and ongoing legal disputes ahead of the June 20, 2026, governorship election in Ekiti State.
The report, however, projected the election as likely to be peaceful but largely uncompetitive, citing strong advantages enjoyed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the weakened state of opposition parties.
It also identified Governor Abiodun Oyebanji of the APC as the clear frontrunner, pointing to incumbency strength, elite political backing, and internal divisions within opposition ranks.
The report, titled “Ekiti State Off-Cycle Governorship Election Pre-Assessment Report,” stated that the political atmosphere in the state remained calm, with no major threats to security recorded in pre-election activities so far.
“There is a high possibility that the election will be peaceful based on the generally calm and positive situational outlook prevailing in the state.
”Most of the pre-election activities have so far been carried out without any serious security threat, breach of the peace or violence,” it stated.
However, it warned that worsening economic conditions and public dissatisfaction could affect turnout and increase the risk of vote buying.
“The political economy of the state, with an increasing public disaffection over poor living conditions, may influence voter turnout and encourage vote trading,” the report added.
According to the assessment, the election is widely viewed as lacking competitiveness due to the governor’s structural advantages and elite consensus among key political actors.
“The general perception in the state is that the election will not be competitive due to the residual advantage of incumbency and elite consensus among major actors in the ruling and opposition parties in favour of the sitting governor; resource disequilibrium between the ruling party and the opposition parties, as well as internal contradictions and leadership crisis within opposition parties,” it stated.
The report described the APC as the dominant political force in the state, noting that Oyebanji’s campaign is built around his Shared Prosperity Agenda, which focuses on continuity, infrastructure, economic growth, job creation, education, and healthcare.
While acknowledging internal disagreements within the APC over ambitions and appointments, the report said the ruling party remains significantly stronger than its rivals.
The report painted the opposition, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as fragmented and weakened by internal disputes and leadership struggles.
It noted that unresolved tensions from party primaries have triggered multiple litigations that could still affect the electoral process.
“The unresolved issues and tensions within the political parties, including the ruling party, as a result of the fall-out from the party primaries and candidate nominating process, have led to various litigations as the aggrieved candidates are seeking redress, albeit through established institutional processes,” it said.
It further warned that “the unpredictable outcome of these litigations could still alter the list of candidates for the election.”
The EU-SDGN also highlighted growing voter apathy, attributing it to economic hardship and declining trust in political actors.
While noting that Ekiti voters were traditionally politically engaged, it said current trends suggest increasing disengagement driven by perceptions that election outcomes may already be predetermined.
Despite these concerns, the report expressed confidence in the capacity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Ekiti State to deliver a credible election, citing the experience of its officials and established electoral systems.
